McGowan for Maine

By Dan Billings
Kennebec Journal
January 30, 2010

It matters who wins elections.

That was made clear by Scott Brown's stunning upset victory in last week's special election to select Ted Kennedy's successor as U.S. senator from Massachusetts.

Because of Brown's election, President Barack Obama's whole agenda is now threatened. Health-care reform and cap-and-trade legislation that was expected to end up on his desk this year now may never even come to a vote in the U.S. Senate.It is only a slight overstatement to say that Brown's election changed history.

The stakes in Maine's gubernatorial race may not be as high, but one of the candidates -- Pat McGowan -- nearly changed history himself in his first campaign for high office.

Today, Pat McGowan is a veteran political figure seeking the Democratic nomination for governor. He just completed seven years as Gov. John Baldacci's Conservation commissioner and, during the administration of former President Bill Clinton, he served as regional administrator of the Small Business Administration.

Today, Pat McGowan is a veteran political figure seeking the Democratic nomination for governor. He just completed seven years as Gov. John Baldacci's Conservation commissioner and, during the administration of former President Bill Clinton, he served as regional administrator of the Small Business Administration.

In 1990, however, McGowan was a young, unknown state representative from Canaan who was trying to upset a political heavyweight -- and he nearly pulled it off.

Olympia Snowe was seeking her seventh term in Congress representing Maine's 2nd District. Snowe was first elected in 1978 and, during the 1980s, she crushed a series of unimpressive Democrat challengers. The election of 1990 was expected to be no different.

At the start of the campaign, McGowan was unknown outside of Somerset County. At the State House, he had distinguished himself mainly as one of the young House members who acted as Speaker John Martin's henchmen, a group that also included Mike Michaud and Jack Cashman.

But McGowan ran an energetic campaign and had the advantage of owning a small plane that allowed him to travel across the sprawling district. At the same time, Snowe was trapped in Washington as a budget battle raged, one that ultimately damaged Republicans nationwide when President George Bush broke his no-new-taxes pledge. When polls showed the race tightening, McGowan raised enough money to buy late TV advertisements criticizing the incumbent.

Though McGowan had the momentum heading into Election Day, Snowe survived, just barely. Though she lost her home county of Androscoggin, she won the race by fewer than 5,000 votes.

McGowan tried to unseat Snowe again in 1992, but the candidacy of Green Party candidate Jonathan Carter and a more focused campaign by the incumbent led to a 7 percent margin of victory, though she received less than 50 percent of the vote in the three-way race.)

Since her political near-death experience in 1990, Snowe has gone on to become a major figure on the national scene. She was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994, succeeding then-Majority Leader George Mitchell. She has won re-election to the Senate twice by large margins.

When Republicans held a narrow majority in the Senate, Snowe was seen as a key swing vote. Since the Democrats' big victory in 2008, Snowe has been seen as one of the few Republicans who might help advance President Obama's legislative agenda. She remains popular in Maine and likely will remain a senator until she chooses to retire.

It is fascinating, however, to speculate how Maine political history would have been different if McGowan had slain the giant in 1990.

If Snowe had lost her House seat that year, it is unlikely she would have been a candidate for the Senate in 1994. In fact, as a two-term congressman from the 2nd District, it is quite possible that Mitchell would have endorsed McGowan as his successor in 1994 rather than then-1st District Congressman Tom Andrews. If that had happened, it might have been McGowan who went on to a long career in the Senate.

If McGowan had been elected in 1990 and stayed in Congress in 1994, it is unlikely that John Baldacci would have ever been governor.

In 1994, when Snowe ran for the Senate, Baldacci emerged from a crowded 2nd District primary and won a narrow victory in a four-way race for the House seat. Baldacci then used his eight years in Congress to prepare for a run for governor.

If Baldacci had never served in Congress, however, it is unlikely that he would have been his party's choice for governor. He might have termed out of the state Senate and be running a restaurant in Bangor today.

With a crowed field for governor in both parties, one thing is clear: The outcome of the election will not only affect Maine government for the next four years, it will affect Maine political history for decades to come.